Sunday, 2 December 2012

The enigma that is Mr. Narayana Murthy


Finally, I have the time to write something. It has been a very hectic four months and with no results yet to show for that. Nevertheless, it feels great to be able to write again.
I officially became an engineer in the month of November, as my alma mater held its first convocation. It was brilliantly done, kudos to the Alumni team for that. It was amazing to meet people with  whom I had spent the last four years. But this is not what the idea of the blog is.
What would you do if you became a multi-millionaire and had more money than you could ever imagine? Buy a big house, keep a fleet of cars, wear the most expensive of accessories and clothing? Not if you are Mr. Narayana Murthy. We have all heard stories about the great visionary and the true father of the Indian IT industry. We all know how he started the company Infosys, with borrowings from his wife. About how even after all the riches, his wife still used to drop him to office as he did not know how to drive. About how their foundation donates millions of rupees to charity every year. But there is a subtle difference between listening to all the nice stories about such geniuses  and actually observing them in person. Perceptions change vastly after the latter, and not always for the good. In the case of Mr Murthy, thankfully, this did not happen. Here is what I saw an understood about the great man.
The official arrival of the chief guest was at 9.30 am as per schedule. All the students had naturally arrived much earlier. By 9.15 am, the volunteers were ushering us into the hall that was the venue of the convocation. I did not go in, as I did not expect anything to happen before 10 am. As I was loitering about outside, I saw a delegation of suited up men arrive in front of me. Right in centre was the Mr. Murthy. I looked at my watch. It was 9.25 am( and my watch is five minutes faster!). Talk about punctuality. While narrating this incidence to my father, I got to know another great story. Mr Murthy was to be the judge at the Hindustan Leadership Summit for judging the best entrepreneur. The committee which he headed was supposed to meet a 9am on a particular day with the nominees. At 9 am, Mr Murthy started off the process even though some participants had not reached. Clearly, punctuality is a virtue well imbibed in him.
As the convocation session began, Mr Murthy sat on the sofa listening to the various boring and frankly un-necessary speeches. The suit that he wore was one that you would expect any middle-class man to wear. He was wearing those woollen warm winter socks that we normally do in winters. Looking at him, I thought he has beautifully followed the words of Mahatma Gandhi-"simple living and high thinking".  As his turn came to address us, he delivered s speech that was relevant and not the normal boring kind. He talked about how the concepts that we have learned should always remain with us, how we should always keep ourselves updated with the latest in our field, how he still reads about the core topics in Computer Science(database, networking etc.) daily for two hours. Thankfully, it did not contain much about being a good human being, helping others, being moral and all the boring official crap that you would normally expect a chief guest to deliver. He was aware that he was talking to CS graduates and his address was very much in context.
After the session, the delegation disappeared upstairs while parents and students went off for the lunch. You would expect that the chief guest and other officials would be having their own lunch somewhere in private chambers. Not with Mr. Murthy. He was down for lunch in an hour. And that was the most incredible sight of the afternoon. Here was the IT king of India, a renowned person worldwide with many awards to his name, calmly standing and talking to every student and parent who wished to interact. It was disarmingly humbling to see the unassuming nature of the man. There were no security guards pushing the people away. There was no arrogance being shown. He never made you feel as if he is any better than you. That afternoon, he changed from being a chief guest to  being "one of us".
Finally, as time ran out, Mr. Murthy had to leave. You would expect the chauffeur driven super luxury car to come. And for the umpteenth time that day, Mr Murthy proved us wrong. The car that stood was a normal yellow and black Swift Dzire taxi, with a simple driver.
As I went back, I realized that the day had taught me a very important lesson. It did not tell me how to become rich, but it did tell me how to behave and carry yourself if I ever become that rich.h

Friday, 27 July 2012

Impact of the recent negative outlook of various rating agencies on India


The higher you climb, the harder you fall.
Indian economy, enjoying a honeymoon period for the best part of the last seven years, has been hit where it hurts the most. S&P has downgraded India's rating outlook to negative from stable in April. It also downgraded ratings for 21 major Indian banks including SBI and ICICI and the top IT firms like TCS, Infosys and Wipro. Since then, it has been issuing continuous warning stating Indian rating might be downgraded from its present state, which is just a notch above junk. It has forecast the growth in current fiscal year to be 5.3%, down from 6%.
If everything above sounded like French, then here is the English translation. S&P is a financial services company, which is also one of the world's biggest credit rating agencies. It issues ratings to issuers of debts and debt instruments. These ratings are calculated based on a GAMMA score. This score measures the strength of a company's corporate governance practices as an investor protection against potential governance-related losses of value or failure to create value1. It was in news last year when it cut US rating from AAA. And last month, it cut India's rating outlook. India's rating, BBB-, may go down another notch in another couple of years if actions are not taken immediately. Another credit rating agency, Moody's cut the rating of several Indian banks, like HDFC and Axis.
There are several questions that can be asked. Why the ratings deterioration? How would it make a difference? What can be done to correct it?
India has been in a state of economic slowdown for some time now. Ever since Euro debt crisis, the whole world has been facing the shock. India has gone into a rapid downward spiral since then. India's account deficit and fiscal deficit had burgeoned since then. Fiscal deficit, which was projected to be 5.1% of GDP and which was 4.6%  in the previous fiscal year, ended at 5.9%. This is perilously close the 6% mark, which is considered to be the benchmark. For the record, it was 7% during the dark days of 1991. Account deficit, as of now, stands at 4.5% of GDP. In nutshell, India has been spending well beyond its means, and this extravagance has now come back to bite. The current political gloomy scenario in the country, where reforms are not moving and legislations are slow, have been taken into account by the ratings agency before downgrade
This downgrade will worsen the already poor situation of the economy. The borrowing costs for both Indian companies and Indian banks will rise to compensate for the highly negative outlook. The banking system's bad loans might be bloated up, as a result. Bad loans have grown faster by three times than credit. These loans, which stood at 2.9% of total loans in March 2012, might rise to 4.3% by 2013. The normal accepted figure is somewhere between 3.3% and 3.5%. Banks, which are now relying heavily on mutual funds and insurance companies, have raised the risk of the complete financial system. The rising short-term borrowings of banks at 27% of the total and the sector's reliance on mutual funds has made things more tough2. The foreign investments, which have been drying up swiftly, may be eroded even more quickly. This disinterest of investors in the Indian market may make the already weak rupee fall farther as the demand for rupee will weaken against dollar. This would make imports more expensive and push the inflation, which is already at an uncomfortable high level, north. The ratings cut, thus, is going to puncture India's reputation as a growth and investment destination.
The only good thing, if one wants to be optimistic, is that it might wake up the sleeping giant. The Indian government, which has been rightly accused of policy paralysis, may wake up and swing into action. One of the first motives has to be to reduce the behemoth figure of account and fiscal deficit. In the budget for the current fiscal year, the fiscal deficit target has been set for 5.1%, which in itself is a huge figure. Nevertheless, this target had been set on the basis of estimating the fuel, fertilizer and food subsidy at a very competitive and almost an unrealistic amount. To meet these levels, the government will need to pull up the prices of petrol, diesel, and LPG. So far, it has hiked the prices of petrol and LPG. The petrol hike has been rolled back partially after widespread protest. However, the price of diesel need to be raised immediately. The government is losing around Rs.14 per litre on diesel and this amount needs to be brought down to achieve the subsidy targets. That the government is considering raising the tax on diesel cars instead of increasing the fuel price reflects poorly on them. The raising of duty on gold import has done a world of good to its imports, as they fell by more than 30% in the first quarter of year. The decrease in imports reduces the current account deficit. Also, gold as an import is useless. It just lies dead in vaults, without providing any value addition. The government also needs to attract the foreign investments in the form of FDI and FII. Instead, during the budget, the finance minister had imposed capital gain tax on offshore transactions involving Indian assets with retrospective effect from 1962. The Supreme Court cancelled all the licenses issued for mobile networks. Both Uninor and Vodafone have protested. Another budget provision, the General Anti Avoidance Rules (GAAR), is creating a poor impression of India. Such incidents can only send a negative picture to prospective investors. The government needs to push for reforms like pushing the cap for FDI in multi brand retail, opening pension fund for foreign investors. Tax reforms like Direct Tax Code and Goods and Services Tax need to be implemented.
Such moves might improve the economic stagnation of India. The impact of the downgrade may make the government become proactive and come up with healthier reforms. This, in turn, might push up growth figures, attract foreign inflows, push down inflation which may lead to the much awaited rate cuts by the RBI.
As they say, learn from yesterday and hope for tomorrow.

Tuesday, 24 July 2012

Grexit - a possible solution to the Euro crisis?


A caveat: Grexit is not a proper English word!
Grexit is a slang formed by the combination of two words- Greece and exit. Coined by Citigroup's chief analyst, Willem H.Buiter and Ebrahim Rahbari, it refers to the prospect of Greece leaving the Euro and getting back its old currency, the drachma. Impossible as it may sound, this possibility is more real than it seems. There is some serious thinking going into pushing for the Grexit.
Is this a good idea? Would it indeed help in solving the Euro crisis?
To get that answer, we need to look into what caused the crises at the first place.
 In the aftermath of the housing bubble that finally led to the 2008 crisis, slow growth became the norm.  Greece, which had been spending way beyond its limit, without much care of the widening deficit, was the first to feel the pinch. Last February, Greece, a primary default candidate, under pressure from neighbours, approved of austerity measure to cut down on the budget deficit. The government spending were decreased, tax rates increased. The target was to bring down the deficit, which had risen to 13% of the GDP by 2009, to about 3%. But every coin has a flip side. With the austerity drive, and no funding, the growth slows down. And with that, so do the taxes, and as a consequence, the deficit widens. But Greece had no other option. The credit rating of major Greek banks slipped. With Spain and Portugal also giving signs of instability, fears of a European crisis widened. The credit rating of Spain slipped to double A, and as Greece agreed to become the first EU country to be bailed out by EU and IMF, and euro plummeted,  the writing was on the wall. Ireland too faced the music, with a credit down-rating following austerity measures approved by the tiny nation. The consequence of all this is that the country's bonds have become unstable and the investors stay away for the fear of volatility. The ECB (European Central Bank), hence, has had to buy the government bonds of Spain and Italy.  The concept of Euro bonds, issued by EU as whole was discussed. But Germany was vehemently opposed to it, and naturally so, for joining hands with Greece and others would make borrowing more expensive for it.
This summarizes the Euro crisis. But I have anyways never been too fond of the fundamental principal on which Euro runs. Losing your sovereignty and having a common body controlling the monetary policy of the whole region was not a good move. The birth of Euro as a currency is flawed. It allowed countries like Greece to borrow beyond their means and they were safely nestled in the security that Euro, which was established to challenge the might of US dollar, provided. Such consequence, hence was inevitable.
With Euro zone in such a place, how would the Grexit change things? For Greece, it might seem like a blessing. Which it is not. The standard approach of devaluing your currency may not be the best alternative. The depreciation of a currency is useful when there is no issue with the production, but an issue with the relative pricing. With Greece, that is certainly not the case, as the depreciation of currency may increase productivity marginally, but that would be more than offset by higher import bills. A devaluation of currency would lead to higher uncertainty in the banking sector, which is already suffering from liquidity issues.
 As far as the Euro is concerned, this might not be the best move even for them. For one, Grexit may sent a dangerous precedent and lead to Spexit, Irexit and Porexit in lieu of the failing economies of Spain, Ireland and Portugal. Then there is the point that if such exits become a norm, then none of the Euro country would be ready to cover up the liabilities of a fellow country's banks and make up for the huge debt that may be piled up by it. The contrary argument to this is that it may make the Euro countries sit up and be careful, but the threat offered by the former outweighs the latter argument. Also, a system needs to be developed, a European super body, that would need to look into the affairs of European banks. Then there are logistics issue. How would the Greece economy run when currency change is taking place? Form where would the capital of banks come, as there is no-one willing to invest in Greece?
It is clear that the best way forward for Greece and the Euro is not Grexit, but reforms. Strong structural reforms are the need of the hour for the Greeks as they try to correct the wrongs of their previous leaders. Would Germany and others stick with Europe? As long as they are true to the terms and conditions of the austerity measures. I think the Greeks are ready to brave the terms rather than having to face an exit.

Tuesday, 22 May 2012

A tale of two temples!

Been a long time since I wrote anything. Most probably due to having too much time, I have been too busy not doing anything!
Just came back from a trip to Dharamshala/ Dalhousie. It was an awesome trip. These are two relatively low profile hill stations in the Himalayan state of Himachal Pradesh. The low footfall in these places makes them an ideal place to visit if you are seeking a peaceful place to visit in summer. Watched Delhi thrash Punjab in Dharamshala also. But the  two experiences I wanted to share are not related to this.

STORY 1
15 km from Dharamshala, there is a Chamunda Devi temple. It is supposedly very famous. While visiting the local sight-seeing points, I went here also. The moment I entered the temple, I realized that what I had heard was indeed true. There were two adjacent long queues just for entering the main temple. I am not too much of a religious person. Hence, I was not too inclined to wait for over an hour. But my dad disagreed. So I had to stand there in the queue for half an hour. When I entered the main temple, there was still a further queue. And people were literally standing on top of each other. There were railings to mark the border and these railings led directly to the main enclosure where the "pandit" was sitting. For another forty minutes or so, I struggled in the queue. Every five minutes, there was a shout of "Jai Mata Di". Also, just in front of the place where the pundit was sitting, there was a lot of pushing going on. Some people were shouting, some people were swearing. By the time I got out, my clothes were disheveled. I was a little agitated. 
I had a couple of questions in my mind. Why do people visit a temple? If someone asked me that, I would say to derive a little peace within myself and come out a little more happy and content. But that was certainly not the case here. I do not think too many people walked away happily. It was an harrowing experience at best. And shouting and swearing at a place where you have come to pray would seem a little out of place. Then, there were people who had "connections" with the pundit or some other person and they were able to get "darshan" directly. Again, the same question. Why did these guys come to the temple? Even inside a temple, there are ways to "bribe"!
Patience is a virtue that is sorely lacking in us Indians (and I am a prime example of that). We always want to push our way through. If everyone had walked along peacefully, it would have taken a lot less time and been a lot more satisfying.
The experience confirmed my belief that religion, for a lot of people, is now a thing to show off. Specifically in the Hindu context, we visit some famous temples of God XYZ to convince ourselves and the society that we indeed our a great follower of Him. The way we behave in the temple has no significance. We can cause a lot of trouble to our fellow "followers", but that does not matter. We organize jagratas, chowkis etc for another God ABC. Never mind that we are disturbing the sleep of hundreds of people with our loud mikes.

STORY 2
On the second last day of my trip I went to Mcleodganj, a place 6-7 km above Dharamshala where the famous Dalai Lama resides. In the evening, we (me and dad) went to visit the monastery. It is a beautiful complex. There are a couple of shops and a museum to go along with the temple. The temple is built a little higher up. It is a small structure situated in the middle of a huge courtyard. A lot of beds are placed in the courtyard where the lama( the guys who wear the red/maroon kind of weird dress!) and even ordinary people can sleep. The temple has a big statue of Lord Buddha and a couple of other statues are also there. 60% of the temple area was cordoned off. In the remaining space, you could walk about. When I went there in the evening, there was not much activity. I went into the temple, sat there for some time, and came out feeling a little better. Exactly the reason for going to the temple.
It got better the next day when I again went to the monastery. As I went in the afternoon, there was a lot of activity going on. Hundreds of lamas were sitting in the courtyard and in the cordoned off area rotating a bead of threads in their hands and murmuring something. The windows of the temple were open so that the whole courtyard could see the temple and vice-versa. Yet, the moment you entered inside the temple, there was a sense of calmness and peace that prevailed. I again sat down(on thew insistence of my father) and noticed the people around. There were the lamas going about their prayers in a quiet and a peaceful way. And there was something in their faces. They all seemed to radiate a kind of happiness that was latent. Tourists came, clicked photographs(there were no restrictions), chatted in low voices(though nobody asked them to do so) and went. The Tibetans came, did their rituals (which involved joining your hands above your head, bringing it down, and then going down on the knees before lying flat on the ground, headfirst three times) and walked off. Often they were accompanied by little children, who made a little noise(which no-one objected to), tried to copy their parents.
All in all, there was a welcoming and an open air about that place that I haven't really experienced anywhere. There were no restrictions, and yet everyone seemed disciplined. Once again, as I walked out, there was a compelling sense of contentment and peace that sweep-ed across me.
As I got out of the temple and into the courtyard, one of the lamas, who was at-least 60 (all of them were a little old), came and asked- "Khaana khaayenge?". I was about to refuse, but as I looked up, I saw him, looking at me, with a huge smile. I said yes. He went downstairs, looking for a couple of plates. It was a sight watching that 60 something lama looking for the plates. It took him 2-3 mins to find one. Finally, after getting them, he came upstairs, handed out the plates and served us  rice and some vegetable mix which looked quite horrible to me. The enthusiasm with which he served was similar to the one with which he had looked for the plates. People who know me know that if I don't like something, no-one can make me eat it. Yet, I tried my level best. I ate 15% of the food just remembering his expressions and enthusiasm. I really wanted to eat the rest, but it was too tough. While I was standing and eating, another old lady got up and offered me her seat! I was shell-shocked. There was this old lady offering seat to a youngster like me. The politeness and open nature had really started getting to me. As I went off to wash the plate after putting the uneaten food in a  bucket, another lama lady offered to wash it! And as I accidentally brushed an old lady, she was the one who apologized before I could say a word! 
Needless to say, their loving nature and hospitality had a profound impact on me. The image of these lamas sitting in the courtyard and the temple, going about their business has stuck to my mind since then. I did not take any picture, simply because I did not have to. The visit has left a long lasting impression on my mind.
These couple of visits have made sure that I travel to Dharamshala again to visit the awesome monastery and the even more awesome people. About the temple, I am not so sure!

Sunday, 1 April 2012

A vote of thanks

Freedom. The sweet taste of freedom. The ability to be able to do what I like and that too at my own pace. It feels all the power to do and think according to my wishes has returned. The bitter-sweet journey that started on 12th December, 2010 has reached its end.
I would like to thank a lot of people who helped me along the way. First up, I would like to thank Prateek and Sandy for the very awesome car drives to CP. Getting up (and more importantly staying awake) at 6:30 AM on weekends after five hectic days of college was never an easy task. There companionship and ridiculous jokes and stories made sure that not only did I stay awake, but also fresh and ready for a class. Then Stuti, for going with me to CP on a lot of occasions. I would have been bored and a lot less motivated to go if she wasn't there. Divij and Sumit, for finding a very nice coaching center and kick starting the process in December. Vriti, for attending a lot of classes and for the numerous discussions on the academic as well as mental approach for the exam. Ankit and Manish, my internship buddies, for the brilliant 10 week stay at Coimbatore. If not for them, living and studying there would have been an arduous task. Hemank, for always asking about my results and wishing me before interviews. Apoorv and Bhanu, my co-exam givers(as I realized very late) for some valuable discussions. Apoorva, for acting as a mentor and an experienced guide whenever I was confused. The excellent center and faculty at CL CP and at TIME who showed me the way. However, the biggest thanks is to Aastha, for without her this whole thing would never have happened. From making excellent notes in sem-6 to coming to CP centre on a lots of days, to doing ALL, and I mean ALL BTP work (and that too under Dr Mayank and Dr Richa)  alone, to making my academics light in sem-7, to listening to my mindless worries and innocent dreams, to standing by me in all the tensed times and bearing me when I was highly unreasonable and illogical, her efforts were in no way less than mine. My family for doing everything possible to make the task easier for me, for giving me encouragement when I was a little down, in essence, for ensuring that I got through these 68 weeks without a mental breakdown .
I will be the first person to put up my hand up if someone asks if I am disappointed. Yes, I am. But I have learned here how to take disappointment. The CAT and XAT failures have taught me that sometimes you can try your best and still not be successful. However, that does not refute the fact that it has been an excellent journey. I managed to clear all the tests that I took. I have learned a lot. I have improved my English, GK and general awareness. The experience of GD and PI's has been a big learning curve for me.
I had big dreams when I started out on December 12. None of them were fulfilled. And that is what makes me more determined. I will try and get where I want to. I will work harder. I still have one more shot, come what may.
I will come back the next season.

Friday, 9 March 2012

The perfect gentleman.

Some people are natural magicians. They are destined for greatness. You know they will be hailed as geniuses the moment they enter their fields. They are people like Roger Federer, Sachin Tendulkar, Brian Lara etc. Others are not so lucky. They work hard. They work very hard. They are questioned every second. They are doubted every second. They are laughed off after every performance. Yet they fight. To prove they belong there. To prove they deserve to be rated with the best. Rahul Sharad Dravid belonged to the second category.
Perhaps the most under rated cricketer to be talked about in the recent years, Rahul has been the backbone of Indian cricket team for well over a decade now. Always overshadowed by the easy genius of Sachin, and the maverick of Sourav, Dravid was always the lesser of the three musketeers. The reason for this was very simple. Whenever Dravid played well, someone overshadowed him. While Sachin and Sourav were busy making their records, on the other side of the wicket there was always one man who saw them though all this. Sample- Ganguly made a career best of 183 in 1999 in WC. Great innings. The man on other end? Rahul Dravid. Sachin made a then career best of 186 against NZ in Vizag. Super knock. Who was at the other end? Rahul Dravid. Laxman made 281 in "that" test. Who was with him? Rahul Dravid. The list can go on and on.
Dravid made his debut at lord's in 1996 with a briliant 95. However he was condemned as a one format wonder. He was too slow. Too technically correct. While his position in the test team was settled, his ODI position was always under threat. He worked on it. He produced 6 ODI hundrends in 1999. He had begin to learn that to survive, he would always have to keep adjusting.
And how well he adjusted. He ended his career with more than 10,000 ODI runs. We all hail Yuvraj and Dhoni as great finisher, but the art of finishing was taught by the perfectionist of Dravid. Along with Kaif and Yuvraj, he finished many games for India in the middle of last decade. If he needed to anchor he slowed. If he needed to go for hits, he went for it. Very few people will know or remember that he has the 2nd fastest 50 for India in ODIs.
And yet the BCCI was ruthless on him. He wasn't playing well in 2007. He was fired from the ODI side. The selectors wanted young blood. But they didn't remove him from test side. Because the young blood simply wasn't good enough for test spot. So he was kept there. This wasn't all. In the CL-2009 in SA, selectors knew that no-one can play on bouncy wickets as well as Dravid. So he was recalled. He played very well. And then dumped again. Recalled again in 2011 England ODI series. By then, even Rahul had had enough. He called it quits in ODI. You can't treat the genius like that. Screw you BCCI. Screw you Dhoni.
And yet he never said anything. Ganguly was always very local. Even Tendulkar, through indirect methods, showed his frustration( Remember that declaration at 194*). He was nearly perfect. But Dravid, he was perfect. Just like his batting. Just like his attitude towards life.I can't remember his negative reaction to anything.
You have to wonder how many runs would Sachin really have made if Dravid wasn't there. If Dravid hadn't been there to take off the shine from the new ball and leave the easier task for the middle order, would they really have been that good? Its an open secret that Tendulkar never moves from No 4. Which allows him to enjoy the reward of hard work Dravid has already put in. They have put in more than 15 century stands. And the credit would more often than not goes to Sachin. Not that Dravid ever resented it. Like a gentleman, he always accepted it. I, for one, think that the God of cricket is fantastic. But I have higher respect for "The Wall" that stood outside protecting the God from inside.
Why does Dravid not get the spotlight more often? Why isn't his photo splashed on the 1st page on newspaper as often as others? Is it because you will never see him taking his shirt off the balcony of Lord's? Because he never dances on the pitch to celebrate? Because he does not have any airs or tantrums? Because he has never come up with controversial comments? Because he never tries to act "cool"? Because he has not hit that many sixes as Sachin or Dhoni or Yuvraj? Perhaps his greatest falling here is that he is a gentleman. He is not naughty and saucy like Yuvraj and Kohli, not the jumping enthusiast as Raina, not as cool as Dhoni, not as artistic as Sachin. You need to have a USP beyond cricket to be popular in media. Nobody told that to Dravid. He always believed that cricket is enough.
With the advent of T-20, a lot of new tings have come in. The scoops, the helicopter shots, the intentional edges, the sledging, the partying and all. However, the sight of Dravid hitting three nice cricket shots out of the ground is what drives me to watch cricket. The sight of Dravid pulling the bowl with authority makes all these shots look foolish. His drives and pulls are work of perfect genius. The mesmerizing sight of Dravid playing the most difficult of balls with inch perfection is what describes cricket at it best.
Here is the story of Dravid's life captured in a couple of sentences.

Mr.RAHUL DRAVID, Gautam is hurt-will you open? Okay.We don't have a batsman keeper- will you keep? Okay. Over rate was slow so captain is banned for this match-will you be captain? Okay. Sachin didn't hit a 100- will you hit one? Okay.India looks like losing-will you save the match? Zaheer has hamstring injury- will you bowl? Errr.........OKAY! This is what RAHUL DRAVID is all about. When things become sour and going gets tough for TEAM INDIA........everyone turns their back in these critical situations ( not to mention even SACHIN), He will be there to save the dignity of team INDIA.

We love you Rahul. We respect you. For standing up when chips were down. For coming forward and taking responsibility when no-one would. For standing all nonsense without uttering a single word. For adapting whenever you were asked to. For keeping the spirit of game alive with your gentleman like attitude.
For being Rahul Dravid.

Thursday, 2 February 2012

Are men more equal than women?

Don't be confused by the heading. I am not a male chauvinist.  I believe that all people are equal. But I came across some very interesting stats recently that made me sit up and think.
I am talking about the Australian Open 2012. Since the last year or so, all the grand slams have bowed to the suggestion calling for equal prize money for both men and women athletes. When it was implemented, I completely believed that we were going the right way. After all, as athletes, men and women should be treated equally. However, since the US Open final, I have come to realize that my thinking was wrong. It is a bad idea to give women money equivalent to men. They deserve less, much less.
It is not a wrong statement that the tennis world is riding high on the shoulder of the ATP, not WTA. Men's tennis is touching new highs every year while the women's tennis has been reaching new lows. Men's tennis has been in news for the great rivalries being created, historical matches being played, some all time greats being produced. Women's tennis is in news for producing four different grand slam champions in a year, the world no1 not having won a grand slam, the faulty ranking systems. I am not saying women's tennis is a mess, I am just saying that at the moment, men's tennis is at a much, much higher level.
Yet all this still has nothing to do with prize money. But now for a moment, think. For all those who saw the men's final and women's final, did Novak Djokovic after his stirring effort deserved the same money as Victoria Azarenka? The women's final lasted 82 minutes, two minutes more than the first set of men's final, which in itself lasted 353 minutes. To see Novak tear his shirt after the win made you believe that he had earned every penny of the $2.3 million.
The first argument that may come up is that I am picking the occasion in which men's final was the longest in the history of slam finals. But over the last year, no grand slam women's final has lasted longer than two sets. One the contrary, 17 sets of the highest quality have been played in the last four men's grand slam finals. Look back in the last five years and I can remember atleast seven finals of great quality from the men's side. From women's side, I just have one memory. And it is not just about the finals. It is about how the whole tournament panned out. You will come across phrases like-"She has dropped just 10 games in three matches" indicating a women's form. True as that might be, it also indicates the lack of depth in women's tennis. In the men's side, you had Andy Muray, the semi finalist who nearly took out the eventual champion, losing a set in the first round itself.
The second argument would be that the women's champion was so dominant that the match was one sided. But that is again a weak argument. Dominance that Federer, Nadal and now Djokovic have shown is much higher than any dominance from women's side. Yet they have not even won half of their grand slams in straight sets. They have been made to work hard by (mostly)each other or some other upcoming star. That is sadly not the case with women's tennis.
The weirdest thing is that even the tickets to the finals of each event are differently priced. For men's final it was $369 and for women's it was $289. Why were the tickets not evenly prized if the prize money is? Because even the organizers know which is the event that is bound to attract more people. Djokovic earned $6515 for every minute on court while Azarenka earned $28,048 for each minute on court. The men's final had 11 games per set and the women's final had a measly 7.5.
These stats clearly indicate that somewhere something is wrong. It is analogous to paying a women twice the amount for working half the time as her male counterpart in a corporate world.
Once again, in quest for equality, we are moving towards gross inequality.

Monday, 30 January 2012

Australian Open 2012: A look back

The just concluded Australian Open once again proved the sound health of the men's tennis. We are truly blessed to be witnessing the golden era of tennis, for there are at-least 2-3 men from this generation who will go down as one of the greatest players. Not to forget the coming of age of some young men to reinforce the fact that the strength of men'd tennis is here to stay. Here is my take on the Australian Open 2012.
Young talent was in abundance as some of the promising players made impressive runs at the Australian Open. On top of the list would be the home favorite Bernand Tomic. The teenager had already made waves at Wimbledon by reaching the quarters and he did his reputation no harm by reaching the 4th round at his home slam. His list of victims include the 2009 semi-finalist Verdasco, Sam Qurrey and fellow star Alexandr Dolgopolov. His five setters against two of the above proved his mettle and his ability to grind. Next on the list is Alexandr Dolgopolov. Another huge talent, he, like Tomic plays a very different brand of tennis. Slicing, taking the pace off the ball, and luring the other person to attack, they don't follow the conventional defensive or offensive style. There match was a true classic and one player appeared the mirror image of other. The pint sized Dolgopolov, the 13th seed has already announced his credentials the previous season and it is good to see him living up to his reputation. The third in list, Milos Raonic, the 23rd seed is another upcoming talent, who has been hand picked by none other than Rafael Nadal as one of the players to look out for. Reaching the third round successfully, he disappointed in his loss to Hewitt. The serve, his strongest weapon was short of the mark as her served only 53% 1st serve to lose to the Aussie veteran. Still his talent was out for everyone to see and the future slams hold a lot for the young Canadian.
Talented and bright as they are, this Australian Open also proved that they had a long way to go before they could catch the players from the "Golden Generation". Each of them was taught a lesson in their defeat to one of the greats. Bernand was given a stern lecture in the course of tennis by Roger Federer. Tennis like the one he saw from the other side of court in the 4th round would have taught him some valuable lessons. Same is the case for Raonic, who was shown that a big serve can be overcome by smart and intelligent play.
The top players once again highlighted their credentials as the best and proved the rankings correct once again. Six of the top-8 and Del Potro made to the quarters. On a comeback trail, the Argentine once again proved why he is a grand slam champion and  I am sure that we would see him in the ATP World Tour finals in November. David Ferrer also made it to the quarters before losing a high intensity match to eventual champion Djokovic. Berdych suffered the same fate at the hands of runners up Nadal.
The top-4 were in supreme form throughout the tournament. Andy Murray was brilliant throughout the tournament and looked on course for a third straight final. He looked razor sharp and his semi-final match(which unfortunately I didn't watch) appears to have been a classic. That he manged to stretch the best to five sets and was very close to victory shows that he has improved from last year when he lost in straight sets. I definitely think he is capable of reaching grand slam finals again this season.Roger Federer, arguably the greatest ever, played in similar vein, reaching semis without dropping a set. His wins over Tomic and JMDP highlighted the variety of shots he can play and that even at 30, he is going strong. However, the semi-final was exactly opposite. Familiar nemesis Nadal once again bested him. Roger was good in patches only and against Nadal, that was never going to be enough. I believe Nadal has got to his head and he needs to be a little more free while playing the Spaniard. He will be a regular at semis in the slams and if luck and draw favoring, he might pick up a slam or maybe even two. Rafa Nadal was also his usual self, the determination, passion and will was on display throughout the fortnight. He won highly charged quarters and semis before losing the final to Djokovic. He will have another good season with good showings in slams and I am sure he will add at-least one more to his kitty of 10 before 2013 arrives. Novak Djokovic continued from where he had left off in 2011, and passed early tests easily before the last three matches made him sweat out. His game is exactly where he wants it. Moreover, the winner's mentality that he now possesses has helped him out of a lot of tight spots in the last three days. The Djoker slam, as the French would now be called would be his for taking, though he has to be careful of Rafa. Defence of the other two might prove difficult and I am sure he would lose one of them. A year similar to 2011 awaits if he can maintain his form.
 Here are my pick for the three best matches of the tournament(I did not watch the second semi-final):

(3) Rafa Nadal defeats Roger Federer 6-7 6-2 7-6 6-4: To me, it was a disappointing match. When two greats, sharing 26 slams between them finish with more unforced errors than winners, you can conclude that match was not as great as it could have been. However, there were some riveting rallies, some amazing defense from Rafa and some shots of pure genius from Roger. But they were short lived moments and hence it was not the best match of the tournament.

(2) Bernand Tomic defeats Alexandr Dolgopolov 4-6 7-6 7-6 2-6 6-3:  A compelling match that brought together two players with very similar styles. Playing a very weird brand of tennis, this match showed us what to expect from tennis in coming years.The almost four hour encounter was truly enthralling.

(1) Novak Djokovic defeats Rafael Nadal 5-7 6-4 6-2 6-7 7-5:  I don't really have to describe the match. Brutal tennis at its best, the rallies in the match were at a different level all together. At times it appeared as if there were two bulls on the court not giving each other even an inch. The physical stamina of each was tested to the hilt and I was a little surprised to see Djokovic come out on the top in 5th. Physically drained after a five hour semi final, the herculean effort to win the 5th was even more appreciable. I believe Nadal has developed a mental block against Djokovic, for he was unable to stop a half fit Djokovic in the decider. That takes nothing away from the Spaniard who gave it his best and was gracious in defeat in a match that I rate as the 2nd best (that I have ever watched) after the Wimbledon 2008 final.

Wednesday, 25 January 2012

The Vodafone tax case: A landmark judgement

How would it feel to get Rs 11,000 crore? Just ask Vodafone and you will get the answer. The Supreme Court decision for relief to Vodafone in the Rs 11,000 crore tax must have led to a sigh of relief at its London headquarters. Fought over a time period of almost 5 years, the decision once again outlines the independence of judiciary and the legislative & executive in India.
What was all the ruckus about? The story starts when Vodafone entered into an agreement with Hutchison Telecommunication International Limited for acquisition of its 67% share in Hutchison-Essar. The deal led to transaction worth $11.206 billion. The IT department, in September 2007 accused Vodafone of failing to deduct Indian tax on payment to HTIL and a show cause notice was issued. To understand why Vodafone was supposed to pay tax, we need to understand the meaning of capital gain. Capital Gain refers to profit in investment in a capital asset. If you purchase a plot today and sell it two years late, the profit is the capital gain. And like on everything else, we have to pay a tax for it. This capital gain tax is precisely what the taxman demanded. The Bombay High Court, in 2010 rejected the appeal of Vodafone and upheld the IT department's demand.
It is difficult to imagine why then has the decision been reversed by the supreme court and on what basis did it overturn the decision? The explanation of tax seems to make it evident that Vodafone are the culprits. But this case had a flip side to it. Hutchison is a Hong_kong based company while Vodafone is British based. The argument put forth was that  the law allows taxation of income deemed to accrue or arise in India through the transfer of a capital asset "situated in India". Since both the companies involved are non-Indians, the law does not apply onto them. The Bombay high court had rejected the argument saying that the source of income for the company was from India. But source of income lies where the transaction takes place and not where the economic interest lies. And since there is no explicit mention for out of country promoters, Vodafone argued that thy have no liability towards the IT department.
The Supreme Court handed the decision in favor of British telecom giant saying that unclarity in laws and legislation need to be overcome to prevent such situations from arising. It said that it could hold Vodafone accountable if there were specific laws that took care of this situation or if it could be proved that the transaction had been carried out to evade tax. It also asked the IT department to return the Rs 2500 crore deposited with it with 4% interest.
The decision has naturally made the finmin sit up and take notice. Already, a team has been formed to review the case. There are also talks about forming clear and unambiguous laws to avoid such precedence. But the decision is likely to improve the foreign investor sentiment. Buoyed by this decision, it is believed that the outlook towards investment in India is going to improve. At the same time, it needs to be ensured that no-one can make use of these ambiguous laws to his own profit.

Saturday, 21 January 2012

My reservations against reservations

I have been trying to read newspaper daily for sometime now. And I have come to realize that reading the full newspaper can make you dislike your country. Every page is filled with such filthy stories and loads of crap from our (mostly)useless politicians that I feel sorry that I was born here sometimes. The line may have come out more strongly than how I wanted it to, but the basic feeling is the same. The critics may say that we are better off than a lot of other places, but we never count the people below us but look at the people above us. I thought of bringing one such topic to the light here.
Elections in the states of Punjab, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Goa and Manipur are due. The campaigning for the same is on in full swing. The spotlight is naturally on the largest state of India, Uttar Pradesh. Traditional heavyweights SP and BSP are leaving no stones unturned in their efforts to get to power. National parties BJP and Congress are also busy designing strategies to win the UP polls.
I find the politics at UP very weird. It is completely caste and religion based. The vote bank for Mayawati, the BSP supremo and the current CM  Jarawas, her native tribe. Not that Mulayam Singh, SP chief is far behind. He has his own following of Yadavs.
When politicians campaign in UP, there agenda is not to please the public of UP but to appease their vote banks. The latest group to be targeted is the Muslims. While Congress promised a quota of 4.5% within OBC quota for muslims in education and job sectors, the SP went one step ahead and promised them 9%. It leaves me astounded. I mean, in India everyone wants reservation for their caste/ religion. The women want a 33% reservation in parliament. The SC/ST/OBC want reservation in higher education and jobs. The Gujjars were up in arms demanding reservation for their community a while back. Now, the muslims want a reservation too. And a couple of months back, Mayawati was seen asking for reservation for Jats too. Every freaking minority wants that it should be represented in proportion to its population.
I gave my MBA admission exams this winter. I learned that in the last 4 years IIMs have increased their seats from a little over 2000 to 3000. But the seats for general category remain almost same. Why? Because of 275 reservation for OBCs. When I check out forums and see a 92%ile OBC getting the nod above a 99.8%ile general category student it makes my blood boil. What has this OBC done to deserve the seat more than the other guy. Clearly he is less intelligent and less deserving. Why then should this guy get a seat? Because he is an OBC? Does that give him the right to snatch the seat from a more deserving candidate? Even in our college, when we started we had 60 seats. For general there were only 34. That means a lot of deserving general category candidates lost out to a lot of undeserving reserved seats candidates. If someone among them reads it and is offended, then be my guest. That guy has reached here because of his caste and not because of his capabilities.
The problem is that the reserved seats now form 49.5% of total seats in higher education. Only 50.5% seats are available for general category. If this number goes below 50%, and with the lousy and pathetic political system that we have I am sure it will, then the definition of general would fail. Because then we all would fall under the minorities too as we will have less than half of the total share. Sounds bizzare? Such is our system.
The reservation for muslims is even more bewildering. Suppose a general category guy goes for a job and is rejected because of lack of seats. Next day, he converts to become a muslim. If he now applies, would he get the job? It is totally eccentric.
The case of DU is even more pathetic. The seats reserved are sometimes not even filled. And neither are they changed to the general category. Another occasion when a lot of bright minds are unable to get into a college they deserve.
I am not saying that we should completely eradicate the system. I believe reservation on basis of economic stability is a better approach. A poor hindu boy deserved a seat more than a rich OBC candidate. If our system is able to get him a seat using this system, then I believe that is the correct use of reservation. I know that coming up with procedures for such a system is very tough and ambiguous but I think that such a system will benefit all (except the highly undeserving caste based candidates!).
As I see politicians openly and shamelessly trying to woo the voters on basis of caste/ religion and create newer vote banks, my heart cringes at the fact that the innocent will continue to miss opportunities due to our flawed reservation laws.
The laws which had been created for equality are now a chief source of inequality.

The UID Row: MHA interference is uncalled for

There has been quite an uproar regarding the bio metric collection authority with both MHA (Ministry of Home Affairs) and UIDAI (Unique Identification Authority of India) staking claim. Both sides have claimed the right to do so with MHA even doubting the procedure followed by UID for collecting data from among 170 million people.
But first, what is UID? It is a project started by the government to provide people with a unique identification number. The 12 digit number will be provided to each person and his demographic and biometric data would be stored to establish his uniqueness. This will help in proper distribution of subsidized foods, ration cards etc. The organization responsible for it is the UIDAI headed by IT Czar Nandan Nilekani and backed by the Planning Commission as well as Sonia Gandhi. The MHA is undertaking a similar project in which chip based smart cards are being issued to people as per the National Population Register(NPR). While Mr. Ahluwalia, deputy chairman, planning commission has dismissed this project, the MHA has called the UIDAI project as a duplicate of their own. The finance ministry is worried that too much money is being spent on two similar projects.
The problem here is that UIDAI was mandated to collect the data for about 200 million people. As the target approaches, the department has asked for an extension in the number. The home ministry, naturally is not pleased and wants to carry on the project on its own now. Now that the battle-lines had been drawn, the Union home minister fired the first salvo questioning the authenticity of UID. Questioning the collection system, he has said that the data is not reliable. As per the rumours, a lot of illegal migrants, especially in north-east have got their adhaar cards on basis of false documents. It has demanded that it wants to look into the UIDAI data servers and carry out checks on people responsible for data collection. However, the Nilekani led UID has a strong backing of the planning commission and the finance minister Pranab Mukherjee.
So who should it be?UIDAI or MHA? I would like to believe that the MHA has no business interfering ith the working of UIDAI. They have done phenomenal work so far. With 200 million people covered in less than year, the efficiency of the organization is for all to see. The biggest biometric data capture so far, the reason for its success can be attributed to the department head, Nilekani. The former Infosys chief has led the organization in an systematic way and coming from an IT background has certainly been an advantage for him. Yes, some false UID number might have been created for wrong people, but at below 0.15%, the number does not sound so big. Also, to expect the age old government machinery to be able to carry out such a path breaking and efficient program is a little too optimistic.
With people's Rs 14800 crore at stake, this inter ministry politics has highlighted the inefficiency of the UPA-2 once again. As the bill now rests with the cabinet, one hopes that the best sense may prevail and the system is up and alive as soon as possible.

Monday, 16 January 2012

Devaluation of rupee:Greed and fear do us in

A very interesting point has come to my observation today. We all know that the Indian rupee (INR) was on a depreciating spree in the last four months or so. We have seen INR fall to record low of 54 against dollar. A lot of explanations have been given for the same. One of the prime reasons was that it was believed that the Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) had withdrawn money from the Indian market due to loss of credibility caused by a variety of factors.
The surprising fact that has emerged is that this was a false conjecture. Certainly FII did take money out of the market, but it was more than matched by the inflows. The net result was positive, even though it was a tenth of what it was last year. But the larger question still remains. If the FII kept faith in the Indian market, how do we explain the rapid fall of the rupee? 
The phenomena can be explained by a combination of two factors- fear and greed. There was a greed among the exporters. They did not convert their dollars into rupees. The reason for this was simple. Seeing the negative market sentiment, they expected the rupee to fall and they wanted to take the advantage of this to earn more value for their dollars. The fear among importers compounded the problem as seeing the falling rupee, they sought dollars. The exporters held them back, creating a scarcity of dollars and leading to its escalation. Thus, a mixture of greed and fear led to the drastic fall of rupee against the dollar.
The RBI's moves in mid-December helped in restoring balance. The moves had an immediate impact on the value of rupee. First, it limited the net intra-day and overnight open positions. Then it reduced the extent to which forward contracts could be cancelled or re-booked. Such moves helped rupee gain on dollar and right now it is about 51.

Sunday, 15 January 2012

Food Security Bill: Biting more than we can chew?

The Sonia Gandhi backed Food Security Bill (FSB) has been a hotly debated topic lately. In a country where 21% of the population (and 44% of below 5 children ) is undernourished, the bill seems to be the silver lining the whole country was looking for. Yet it has been received with a combination of optimism ans pessimism. Before seeing why this is so, let us look at the bill itself.
The National Food Security Bill, 2011 aims to provide subsidized grains to about 65% of the population. The recipients have been divided into two parts- the people below poverty line (BPL) as priority group/household (PG/PH) and the people above poverty line as general group(GG). The people in PG are entitled to receive grains worth 7kg/person/month at a cost of Re1,2,3, for millet, wheat and rice respectively. The person in GG are entitled to receive 3kg/person/month at maximum half the MSP (Minimum Support Price) given to farmers. The bill aims to cover 75% of rural population(out of which 46% is PG/PH) and 50% urban population((out of which 28% is PG/PH). Lactating mothers will be given Rs 1000 for 6 months and nutritional support. ICDS (Integrated Child Development Society) and mid day scheme are covered under the bill. People affected by natural disaster will get two free meals a day for 3 months. The bill provides for nutritional support for children below 14 years.
So much so for the bill.  The positives to emerge from here are pretty obvious. India has 230 mn malnourished people, worse than its neighbors Pakistan and Nepal, and this bill will provide for food for a large part of this population. The bill might ensure that the grains stored in the warehouses do not go waste and thus decrease the wastage of grains. It would ensure financial stability for the lactating women. So why is it that the seemingly noble and pro-poor bill being rejected by a significant chunk of people?
The answer to this lies in the implementation. While bought up with a noble cause, the implementation can be describes as poor at the best. First lets have a look at the economics of the bill. As per the estimate, the subsidy would cost the government approximately Rs 95,000 crore.The cost for producing extra food grains would cost a little more than Rs110,000 crore according to the ministry of agriculture. The set up required and the movement of the grains through PDS(Public Distribution System) would escalate the cost and it would be safe to assume that the total cost would be Rs 250,000 crore. Then lets not forget that the budget of the FSB would largely depend on the MSPs. MSP is dependent on the cost of production of the grains. In the past three years the production cost for rice has gone up by 15% per year. If this holds true for the coming years too, the expenditure would also go up by at least 20%. At a time of burgeoning fiscal deficit and slowing economy, can the government afford to spend this much? Don't get me wrong, I don't say that let the poor be damned, lets focus on GDP growth but one has to realize that the magnitude of this bill is beyond what we can spend right now. Our debt to GDP ratio is already well above 80%.  The bill needs to be revisited so that it can be "pruned down" a little to make it feasible. Not that economics alone is the reason for reviewing the bill. The bill tries to fit the same hat on everyone's head. It authorizes the government to allow for uniform procurement, distribution and storage of the grains. Different states have different needs and different capacities and hence this centralized system is bound to spell doom as far as the effectiveness of the bill is concerned. A decentralized system is the right approach as it would allow the state the independence to demand the required amount of resources that are required for the malnourished and under developed section. The state, on their part, need to ensure that the system for calculating the resources requirement are efficient and transparent. We have also failed to come up with a fail safe plan. The procurement of these grains has not been looked into. Do we have the resourced to produce this amount of food? What would happen if there is a drought? How will we get the extra grains needed? If we import food, the international food prices get affected adversely leading to even larger subsidiary and consequently higher expenditure. The FCI(Food Corporation of India) which is going to be responsible for distribution, is not known for efficiency ( The World Bank says that 60% of the subsidy reaches the wrong hand) and the food bill would only increase the workload by 2-3 times. The bill will have an adverse affect on the recently tamed inflation. With the larger procurement need, the MSP is going to be pushed up leading to price rise. Then the other point is that who decides which 65% of population is this bill going to serve? In other words, how do we decide who comes under the umbrella of the bill?
There are many such concerns that have not been addressed. The bill needs to be looked into again and amended so that the delivery system becomes efficient. Otherwise it will go into the bin containing the laws created with the right intention, but rendered useless because of ineffective implementation.